In the ever-evolving world of Major League Baseball, contract extensions are a hot topic, especially as the 2025 season progresses.
Teams are vying to secure their top talents before they hit free agency. Understanding the market value of these players is crucial.
This article delves into the potential extension candidates for 2025. It focuses on impending free agents whose market value is less speculative.
We use a comprehensive approach that considers players’ performance metrics and historical contract data. Then, we project what these players could earn on the open market. We also look at how their current season salaries factor into extension deals.
Understanding the Valuation Process
The process of valuing MLB players for contract extensions involves a detailed analysis of their performance over multiple years.
The primary metric used is FanGraphs’ wins above replacement (fWAR). This provides a solid predictor of earnings on the open market.
By comparing players with similar production levels and team control status, we can estimate potential extension values.
The Importance of Team Control
One critical factor in extension valuations is the amount of team control remaining for a player.
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Players with several years of arbitration ahead of them, like Player A, won’t command the same contract as a free agent, Player B, with similar performance metrics. However, Player B’s free-agent contract can still serve as a guide for the latter part of Player A’s extension.
Key Extension Candidates for 2025
Let’s take a closer look at some of the top extension candidates for 2025, analyzing their projected market value and potential extension deals.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Perhaps no player had a more significant year for their potential earnings than Vladimir Guerrero Jr. His 5.5-win season in 2024 erased any doubts from a lackluster 2023 and reestablished him as one of baseball’s premier hitters.
A player with similar strengths and weaknesses recently signed a deal worth over $750 million, positioning Guerrero in a strong negotiating spot.
For Guerrero, a massive 14-year extension could be on the table, with an average annual value (AAV) of around $30 million. While a deal of this length might seem excessive, several players have signed contracts of nine years or longer in recent offseasons.
- 2024 extension projection: Seven years, $185 million
- 2025 Salary: $28.5 million
- 2025 extension projection: 15 years, $450 million
Kyle Tucker
Kyle Tucker’s performance in the first half of last season positioned him as a potential comp to Juan Soto.
Although Tucker’s injury prevented him from maintaining that level of play, his market value remains high. Tucker could secure a deal extending through his age-36 season, with an AAV comparable to top-tier players.
- 2024 extension projection: Eight years, $204 million
- 2025 Salary: $16.5 million
- 2025 extension projection: 11 years, $366 million
Dylan Cease
Dylan Cease’s impressive performance, including a top-five finish in the Cy Young balloting, places him among the top-earning starters from the past winter.
Cease’s potential extension could buy out six free-agent years, with a projected AAV of just under $33 million.
- 2024 extension projection: Seven years, $140 million
- 2025 Salary: $13.75 million
- 2025 extension projection: Seven years, $210 million
Zac Gallen
While Zac Gallen hasn’t quite reached Cease’s level, his market value remains strong. Gallen’s projected extension aligns with the 2025 version of Johnny Cueto’s deal, offering six years and $174 million before adding his 2025 salary.
- 2024 extension projection: Seven years, $140 million
- 2025 Salary: $13.5 million
- 2025 extension projection: Seven years, $187 million
Framber Valdez
Framber Valdez has enjoyed similar success to Cease and Gallen, but his age (32) limits the length of his potential extension.
Starters entering free agency at this age rarely secure deals longer than four years, barring exceptional cases like Zack Greinke and CC Sabathia.
- 2024 extension projection: Five years, $105 million
- 2025 Salary: $18 million
- 2025 extension projection: Five years, $134 million
Devin Williams
Devin Williams’ raw numbers don’t fully capture his value, as he missed two-thirds of last season. However, on a per-appearance basis, Williams is comparable to recent closers who signed four-year deals.
His reputation as a closer could still secure him a deal rivaling Tanner Scott’s.
- 2024 extension projection: N/A
- 2025 Salary: $8.6 million
- 2025 extension projection: Five years, $80 million
Conclusion
As we move further into the 2025 season, the landscape of MLB contract extensions will continue to evolve. The projections provided here offer a glimpse into the potential market value of some of the game’s top talents.
For more detailed analysis and insights, visit the original article on The New York Times Athletic.
Stay tuned for more updates and expert analysis on the latest developments in Major League Baseball.
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