Baseball season is upon us, and with it comes a plethora of player prop bets that can make Opening Day even more thrilling.
Utilizing expert MLB projections, we highlight some of the most appealing player prop bets available through the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
These bets are based on extensive research and statistical analysis from trusted sources like FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
Keep in mind that betting lines and player projections can fluctuate throughout the day, and weather conditions may also play a role in game outcomes.
Willy Adames: A Strong Opening Day Bet
The San Francisco Giants are set to face the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park, a venue known for its favorable park factors for hitters.
This matchup is particularly enticing for Willy Adames, who is expected to be a key player for the Giants.
Adames is coming off a stellar season where he hit a career-high 32 home runs and posted a .342 wOBA.
Adames vs. Hunter Greene
Adames will be facing Hunter Greene, a hard-throwing righty with a career strikeout rate of 29.6%.
While Greene excels at missing bats, he also has a tendency to give up loud contact, evidenced by his 48.3% fly-ball rate last season.
This makes him vulnerable at home, where he’s allowed a .321 wOBA and 1.65 home runs per nine innings, compared to a .295 wOBA and 0.95 homers per nine on the road.
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Our projections rank Adames as the third-best bat in MLB DFS for Opening Day.
Given his impressive fly-ball rate of 49.8% from last year, Adames is a strong candidate to record at least two bases.
Additionally, his odds to hit a home run are set at +420, making this a bet worth considering.
Phillies’ Trea Turner: A Run-Scoring Machine
The Philadelphia Phillies are a formidable team against left-handed pitchers, and Trea Turner is poised to capitalize on this advantage.
The Phillies will face Washington Nationals lefty MacKenzie Gore on Opening Day, a matchup that heavily favors Turner and his teammates.
Turner’s Performance Against Lefties
Last season, the Phillies ranked third in wOBA against left-handers at .340.
Turner, likely to bat second in the order, is in an excellent position to score runs with heavy hitters like Bryce Harper, Alec Bohm, J.T. Realmuto, and Nick Castellanos batting behind him.
Turner himself had a .381 wOBA and a 40.3% hard-hit rate against lefties last year, making him a prime candidate for run-scoring opportunities.
Our model projects Turner for the fourth-most runs of the day at 0.75.
Given these favorable conditions, betting on Turner to score a run at -115 odds is a solid choice.
Paul Skenes: Under on Strikeouts
Paul Skenes of the Pittsburgh Pirates faces a challenging Opening Day matchup against the Miami Marlins.
While Skenes is a talented pitcher, the line set for his strikeouts at 7.5 seems a bit high, especially considering his likely pitch count.
Conservative Pitch Count
The Pirates are expected to be cautious with Skenes early in the season.
Last year, he threw 84 pitches in his MLB debut, which could serve as a baseline for his Opening Day pitch count.
However, he only threw 51 pitches in his last spring training start, suggesting that the Pirates may limit his innings even further.
Miami was not a high-strikeout team last season, posting the 14th-highest K rate at 23.3%.
Our projections estimate Skenes for 6.7 strikeouts, making the under on 7.5 strikeouts a reasonable bet.
Conclusion
Opening Day offers a wealth of opportunities for savvy bettors.
Whether it’s backing Willy Adames to record multiple bases, betting on Trea Turner to score a run, or taking the under on Paul Skenes’ strikeouts, these prop bets are grounded in thorough research and statistical analysis.
For more detailed insights and the latest betting odds, be sure to check out the full article on FanDuel.
Remember, while these bets are based on expert analysis, the unpredictable nature of sports always leaves room for surprises.
Use your judgment and enjoy the excitement that comes with the start of the baseball season!
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