The 2025 menโs college basketball tournament has reached a thrilling climax. The semifinals feature the top four No. 1 seeds for only the second time since 1979. This Saturday, basketball enthusiasts will witness intense matchups as Florida faces Auburn and Houston takes on Duke.
Florida vs. Auburn: Key Player Props and Betting Insights
The first semifinal game pits Florida against Auburn in what promises to be a high-octane showdown. A significant player to watch is Auburn guard Miles Kelly, who has been the teamโs top three-point shooter this season. Despite a recent slump, Kellyโs performance against top-50 teams and his previous success against Florida make him a crucial factor in this game.
Miles Kellyโs Three-Point Shooting
Miles Kelly has averaged 2.3 three-pointers per game this season. His ability to perform under pressure could be pivotal for Auburn. Although heโs hit a cold streak recently, Kelly has made three or more triples in 5 of his last 10 games. Notably, he has a 43% success rate from beyond the arc against top-50 teams.
- Kellyโs recent performance: Despite going 3 for 18 from distance over the last three games, Kellyโs potential to bounce back is significant.
- Floridaโs defense: The Gators rank 10th nationally in adjusted defense and have allowed the sixth-lowest three-point percentage in the country. However, they permit a high number of three-point attempts to wings, which could benefit Kelly.
- Previous matchup: In their first encounter with Florida, Kelly scored 22 points and made three triples, showcasing his capability to excel against the Gatorsโ defense.
Given these factors, betting on Kelly to hit at least three treys against Florida for the second time this season presents a valuable opportunity.
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Thomas Haughโs Scoring Potential
Florida forward Thomas Haughโs points prop is set at 11.5 with +100 odds for the over. Haughโs recent performance and increased usage make this an enticing bet.
- Recent form: Haugh is averaging 9.8 points across 24.4 minutes per game this season. However, his playing time has increased significantly in the latter half of the year, with an average of 27 minutes per game since February.
- Scoring consistency: Haugh has scored at least 15 points in 47% of games where he played at least 25 minutes. His standout performance in the Round of 8, where he scored 20 points, indicates his potential to exceed expectations.
- Matchup advantage: Auburnโs defense, despite being ranked 8th overall in adjusted defense, has struggled against forwards. This weakness was evident in their recent games, where they allowed significant points to opposing forwards.
In a fast-paced game with a total set at 159.5, Haughโs points prop, either at 11.5 or an alternate of 15-plus, offers substantial value.
Houston vs. Duke: Defensive Battle and Betting Strategies
The second semifinal features a clash between two defensive powerhouses, Houston and Duke. Both teams rank in the top five for adjusted defensive efficiency, making this a potentially low-scoring affair.
Betting on the Under
The total for the Houston-Duke game is set at 136.5, a reflection of their defensive prowess. Both teams play at a slower pace, which further supports the case for betting on the under.
- Adjusted tempo: Duke ranks 269th, and Houston ranks 360th in adjusted tempo, out of 364 teams. The slower pace translates to fewer possessions and, consequently, fewer scoring opportunities.
- Scoring defense: Houston and Duke are first and fifth, respectively, in scoring defense. Their ability to limit opponentsโ scoring has been consistent throughout the season.
- Historical data: Dukeโs games against teams ranked lower than 250th in adjusted tempo averaged 139.1 total points, while Houstonโs similar matchups averaged 127.9 points. Both figures are below their season-long averages, reinforcing the likelihood of a low-scoring game.
Conclusion
The 2025 menโs college basketball tournament semifinals promise to deliver thrilling action and exciting betting opportunities.
From Miles Kellyโs three-point shooting potential to Thomas Haughโs scoring upside, and the defensive showdown between Houston and Duke, there are numerous angles to explore.
For a comprehensive breakdown and the latest odds, visit FanDuel Sportsbookโs best bets for the Round of 4.
Stay tuned for more expert analysis and betting tips as we approach the culmination of the 2025 menโs college basketball tournament.
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