The NCAA March Madness tournament is one of the most thrilling times of the year for basketball fans. Among the many storylines that captivate audiences, the 12-5 upset is one of the most compelling.
Since the tournament field expanded in 1985, No. 12 seeds have consistently defied expectations by knocking off No. 5 seeds. This blog delves into the history, statistics, and memorable moments of these upsets, providing a comprehensive look at why the 12-5 matchup is a must-watch every year.
The History of 12-5 Upsets
The 12-5 upset has become a staple of March Madness, with 57 instances of No. 12 seeds defeating No. 5 seeds since 1985. This trend has made the 12-5 matchup one of the most popular upset picks in NCAA tournament brackets.
As of 2025, No. 12 seeds have a win percentage of 35.26% in these matchups, with a record of 57-101.
Recent 12-5 Upsets
In recent years, the 12-5 upset has continued to make headlines. In 2025, both McNeese and Colorado State pulled off stunning victories as No. 12 seeds.
McNeese edged out Clemson with a nail-biting 69-67 win, while Colorado State defeated Memphis 78-70. These victories are just the latest examples of why the 12-5 matchup is so unpredictable and exciting.
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Notable 12-5 Upsets
Here are some of the most memorable 12-5 upsets in recent history:
- 2024: Grand Canyon defeated Saint Mary’s 75-66, and James Madison beat Wisconsin 72-61.
- 2022: New Mexico State took down UConn 70-63, and Richmond upset Iowa 67-63.
- 2019: Three No. 12 seeds advanced: Murray State over Marquette (83-64), Oregon over Wisconsin (72-54), and Liberty over Mississippi State (80-76).
- 2016: Yale defeated Baylor 79-75, and Little Rock shocked Purdue with a 85-83 double-overtime win.
Why Do 12-5 Upsets Happen?
Several factors contribute to the frequency of 12-5 upsets:
- Underestimation: No. 5 seeds often underestimate their No. 12 opponents, leading to complacency.
- Momentum: No. 12 seeds frequently enter the tournament on a hot streak, having won their conference tournaments.
- Matchup Issues: The playing style of No. 12 seeds can sometimes pose significant matchup problems for No. 5 seeds.
Historical Trends
In 34 of the last 40 tournaments, at least one No. 12 seed has won a first-round game. The only exceptions came in 1988, 2000, 2007, 2015, 2018, and 2023. This trend underscores the unpredictability and excitement that the 12-5 matchup brings to March Madness.
Impact on Brackets
The 12-5 upset is a popular pick among fans filling out their brackets. Given the historical success rate, picking a No. 12 seed to win is often seen as a smart, high-reward gamble.
However, the challenge lies in identifying which No. 12 seed will pull off the upset in any given year.
Bracket Strategies
Here are some strategies for incorporating 12-5 upsets into your bracket:
- Research: Look at the recent performance and playing style of the No. 12 seeds.
- Analyze Matchups: Consider how the No. 12 seed’s strengths align against the No. 5 seed’s weaknesses.
- Historical Performance: Take note of teams with a history of performing well as No. 12 seeds.
Memorable Moments
The 12-5 upsets have produced some unforgettable moments in NCAA tournament history. One of the most notable was Murray State’s Ja Morant posting the ninth triple-double in NCAA tournament history as the No. 12 Racers took down No. 5 Marquette 83-64 in 2019.
Another iconic moment was Little Rock’s double-overtime victory over Purdue in 2016, a game that had fans on the edge of their seats.
Impact on Teams
For No. 12 seeds, pulling off an upset can be a program-defining moment. It brings national attention, boosts recruiting, and creates lasting memories for players and fans alike.
For No. 5 seeds, however, being on the losing end of a 12-5 upset can be a disappointing and season-ending shock.
Conclusion
The 12-5 upset is a quintessential part of the March Madness experience. Its history, unpredictability, and the excitement it brings make it a focal point for fans and analysts alike.
As we look forward to future tournaments, the 12-5 matchup will undoubtedly continue to be a source of thrilling basketball action and unforgettable moments.
For more detailed information on the history of 12-5 upsets, visit the NCAA’s official article.
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