In the world of Major League Baseball (MLB), plate discipline is a highly coveted skill.
The ability to discern between balls, strikes, and pitches to hit or take is a rare talent that sets apart the greats from the good.
Lars Nootbaar of the St. Louis Cardinals is one such player who has been quietly honing this skill since his debut in 2021.
With a remarkable walk rate and a growing ability to make high-quality contact, Nootbaar is showing signs of becoming a complete hitter in the early stages of the 2025 season.
Let’s delve into the intricacies of his development and what it could mean for his future performance.
The Foundation of Plate Discipline
Lars Nootbaar’s journey to becoming a disciplined hitter is rooted in his exceptional ability to draw walks.
Since 2021, he has maintained a 13.6% walk rate, which ties him with Bryce Harper for the 8th-highest walk rate among hitters with at least 1,000 plate appearances.
This impressive statistic is more than just a number; it reflects Nootbaar’s keen eye and decision-making prowess at the plate.
His walk rate is supported by his consistent presence near the top of hitter ability leaderboards, showcasing his elite decision value.
Statistical Achievements
Over the past few seasons, Nootbaar has leveraged his plate discipline to produce a solid .250/.352/.431 triple-slash line and a .341 wOBA.
These numbers place him in the company of some of MLB’s biggest names, such as Christian Yelich, Francisco Lindor, Alex Bregman, and Julio Rodríguez.
Despite not receiving the same level of attention, Nootbaar’s performance indicates that he has the potential to be a standout player.
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Addressing the Ground Ball Issue
While Nootbaar has consistently hit the ball hard, with an average exit velocity just under 91 mph and a 43.6% hard-hit rate, he has struggled with hitting too many ground balls.
His career ground ball rate of 49% is higher than the league average of 44.4%, and this rate has been increasing over the years.
In 2024, his average launch angle dropped to 6.0°, resulting in 51.6% of his balls in play being hit on the ground.
Efforts to Elevate
Nootbaar has been aware of this issue and has expressed his desire to hit more balls in the air.
He has been working on adjusting his swing plane to create more loft, a challenging task given his natural tendency for a flatter swing.
The key to this adjustment lies in making contact with the pitch further out in front, where the bat is moving fastest and has a natural upward direction.
Early Signs of Improvement in 2025
As the 2025 season unfolds, there are promising indications that Nootbaar is making significant strides in his quest to elevate the ball.
In the early going, he has already hit 25 of his 35 balls in play in the air, a stark contrast to his previous tendencies.
This change can be attributed to subtle tweaks in his stance and intercept point, as revealed by Statcast’s new data.
Nootbaar has closed his stance and moved up in the box slightly, allowing him to hit the ball several inches further out in front.
Impact of Swing Speed
Another critical aspect of Nootbaar’s development is his increased swing speed.
Over the past two seasons, he has been slightly better than the league average in swing speed, with a quarter of his swings falling into the “fast swing” category.
In 2025, he has taken this to another level, swinging the bat about a mile per hour faster than last season.
As a result, more than 40% of his swings are now classified as fast, placing him in the 80th percentile across the league.
The benefits of a faster swing are evident in Nootbaar’s performance.
His average exit velocity has reached a career-best 92.8 mph, and his whiff rate has only slightly increased from 19.0% to 20.0%.
This combination of increased swing speed and minimal loss of contact quality bodes well for his ability to generate more extra-base hits and overall offensive production.
The Path to Becoming a Complete Hitter
Lars Nootbaar’s journey to becoming a complete hitter is far from over, but the early signs in 2025 are encouraging.
His foundation of excellent plate discipline, coupled with his recent adjustments to elevate the ball and increase swing speed, suggests that he is on the right track.
Health Concerns
Injuries have been a recurring issue for Nootbaar, limiting his playing time and overall impact.
Since 2021, he has accumulated 1,414 plate appearances, only slightly more than the often-injured Byron Buxton.
Staying healthy will be crucial for Nootbaar to fully realize his potential and contribute consistently to the Cardinals’ lineup.
Increasing Swing Aggression
While Nootbaar’s plate discipline is a valuable asset, it has sometimes approached passivity. He has been known to let hittable pitches pass by. This is because he focuses more on avoiding bad pitches than aggressively attacking good ones.
To maximize his offensive output, Nootbaar needs to adopt a more aggressive approach. Even if it means a slight increase in chase rate and strikeouts. The potential rewards in terms of extra-base hits and overall production are well worth the trade-off.
Lars Nootbaar’s early performance in 2025 indicates that he is making the necessary adjustments to become a complete hitter. His combination of plate discipline, improved swing mechanics, and increased swing speed positions him for a breakout season.
As long as he can stay healthy and adopt a more aggressive approach at the plate, Nootbaar has the potential to join the ranks of MLB’s elite hitters. For more in-depth analysis on Nootbaar’s development, check out the original article on Pitcher List.
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