NCAA Tournament Winners: Top 5 Teams Defying 20-Year Stat Trend

For the past two decades, a fascinating trend has dominated men’s college basketball. Every national champion has been ranked inside the top 12 of the Week 6 AP Top 25 poll. This historical pattern has held true since 2004, making the Week 6 poll a significant predictor of NCAA tournament success.

As we look ahead to the 2024-25 season, the top 12 teams in the Week 6 poll could hold the key to predicting the next national champion. However, several teams outside this elite group could potentially buck the trend and clinch the title.

Historical Significance of the Week 6 AP Top 25 Poll

The Week 6 AP Top 25 poll has been a reliable indicator of NCAA tournament success for 20 years. Teams that rank within the top 12 during this critical period have consistently gone on to win the national championship.

For instance, UConn’s impressive track record includes being ranked No. 5 in Week 6 last year and ultimately winning the title. This pattern dates back to UConn’s 2003-04 season when they were ranked No. 1 in Week 6 and finished as national champions.

Top 12 Teams for 2024-25

As we analyze the current Week 6 AP Top 25 poll, the top 12 teams are as follows:

  • No. 1 Tennessee (8-0)
  • No. 2 Auburn (8-1)
  • No. 3 Iowa State (7-1)
  • No. 4 Duke (7-2)
  • No. 5 Kentucky (8-1)
  • No. 6 Marquette (9-1)
  • No. 7 Alabama (7-2)
  • No. 8 Gonzaga (7-2)
  • No. 9 Florida (9-0)
  • No. 10 Kansas (7-2)
  • No. 11 Purdue (8-2)
  • No. 12 Oregon (9-1)

These teams have shown remarkable performance early in the season, making them strong contenders for the national championship. However, several other teams outside the top 12 could challenge this long-standing trend.

Potential Trend-Buckers

While the top 12 teams are favored, a few teams ranked outside this group have the potential to make a deep tournament run and possibly win the championship. Here are five teams to watch:

Houston (AP Rank: 15, National Title Odds: 15-1)

Despite a rocky start with three losses in their first eight games, Houston remains a formidable contender. They opened the season ranked No. 4 and still boast the fourth-best odds to win the title.

BOOK AWAY GAME TRAVEL NOW!
Find the best accommodations
Check availability at 5* hotels, guest houses and apartments rated "superb" or "exceptional" by visitors just like you.
NO RESERVATION FEES
CHECK AVAILABILITY FOR YOUR DATES HERE
 

Houston’s strengths lie in their balanced offense and defense, ranking No. 7 in adjusted efficiency and No. 2 in defense according to BartTorvik’s metrics.

UConn (AP Rank: 18, National Title Odds: 20-1)

UConn has a proven track record, having won the national championship in each of the last two years.

Although their ranking suffered after a poor performance at the Maui Invitational, they have since rallied with key victories over Baylor and Texas.

With experienced players like Alex Karaban and Hassan Diarra, and talented newcomers like Liam McNeeley and Solo Ball, UConn remains a formidable force under the guidance of their exceptional coach.

Baylor (AP Rank: NR, National Title Odds: 35-1)

Baylor’s current ranking may not reflect their true potential. With a mix of talented freshmen like Rob Wright and VJ Edgecombe, and experienced seniors such as Norchad Omier, Jayden Nunn, Jeremy Roach, and Jalen Celestine, Baylor has the pieces to compete at the highest level.

Under the leadership of championship-winning coach Scott Drew, Baylor could surprise many this season.

Michigan (AP Rank: 14, National Title Odds: 40-1)

Michigan’s strong start to the season includes wins over TCU, Xavier, Wisconsin, and Iowa.

First-year coach Dusty May has successfully integrated his portal class, and with towering 7-footers Vlad Golden and Danny Wolf anchoring their defense, Michigan is poised for success.

Their improving defense and cohesive team play make them a team to watch.

Illinois (AP Rank: NR, National Title Odds: 55-1)

Illinois has a promising roster under coach Brad Underwood.

First-year players Kasparas Jakucionis, Will Riley, and Tomislav Ivisic have quickly adapted to the college game, contributing significantly to the team’s success.

Illinois’ 3-point heavy offensive strategy aligns well with Underwood’s coaching style and personnel. Ranked 16th at KenPom.com, 10th at BartTorvik.com, and 12th in the NET rankings, Illinois has the potential to exceed expectations.

Conclusion

The Week 6 AP Top 25 poll has been a reliable predictor of NCAA tournament success for two decades. However, the 2024-25 season presents an intriguing mix of top-ranked teams and potential trend-buckers.

While Tennessee, Auburn, Iowa State, Duke, and Kentucky lead the pack, teams like Houston, UConn, Baylor, Michigan, and Illinois could disrupt the status quo.

As the season progresses, it will be fascinating to see if the historical trend continues or if a new champion emerges from outside the top 12.

For more in-depth analysis and updates on college basketball, visit CBS Sports.

Joe Hughes
Joe Hughes is the founder of CollegeNetWorth.com, a comprehensive resource on college athletes' earnings potential in the NIL era. Combining his passion for sports with expertise in collegiate athletics, Joe provides valuable insights for athletes, fans, and institutions navigating this new landscape.
 

Join The Fastest Growing Newsletter

Get the latest sent right to your inbox

    Additional Reading:
Scroll to Top