The college football postseason has arrived, and with it comes the excitement of bowl season.
This year introduces a 12-team playoff, but the core thrill remains the same: picking the winners.
For the ninth consecutive year, a unique “Quality Game” system is being employed to predict the outcomes of all 39 bowl games and playoff matches.
This data-driven approach evaluates each team’s performance throughout the season, offering a fresh perspective on who might emerge victorious.
Let’s dive into the methodology and discover the picks that could help you dominate your office pool.
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Understanding the “Quality Game” System
The “Quality Game” (QG) system is designed to assess how well each team performed throughout the season, rather than relying solely on their win-loss record.
The system assigns points based on the quality of each game played, ranging from +3 for a road win over a ranked team to -3 for a blowout loss to an unranked team.
The total QG score for each team is calculated by summing these points, providing a comprehensive measure of their season-long performance.
Point Allocation Breakdown
The QG system uses a specific point allocation method to evaluate each game:
- 3 points: A road win over a ranked team
- 2 points: A home or neutral win over a ranked team
- 1 point: Lopsided win (21 or more) over an unranked team
- 1 point: A narrow loss (8 points or less) to a ranked team
- 0 points: A regular win (9-20 points) over an unranked team
- 0 points: A regular loss (9-20 points) to a ranked team
- -1 point: A narrow win (8 points or less) over an unranked team
- -1 point: A lopsided loss (21 points or more) to a ranked team
- -2 points: A loss (20 points or less) to an unranked team
- -3 points: A lopsided loss (21 or more) to an unranked team
Top Picks and Key Insights
With the QG scores calculated, the system has identified five bowl games with significant point differentials, making them high-confidence picks. Here are the standout predictions:
High-Confidence Picks
- Sun Bowl: Louisville (5) over Washington (-9)
- Guaranteed Rate Bowl: Kansas State (3) over Rutgers (-10)
- Citrus Bowl: South Carolina (7) over Illinois (-5)
- 68 Ventures Bowl: Bowling Green (-5) over Arkansas State (-16)
- Gator Bowl: Mississippi (3) over Duke (-7)
These games present a clear advantage based on the QG system, making them solid choices for your highest-confidence picks.
Underdog Picks: Where the QG System Disagrees with Vegas
One of the most exciting aspects of the QG system is its ability to identify potential upsets where it disagrees with the Vegas odds. Here are 11 games where the QG scores suggest a different outcome:
Potential Upsets
- L.A. Bowl: UNLV (2) over Cal (-5)
- Playoff game: SMU (5) over Penn State (4)
- Hawaii Bowl: South Florida (-6) over San Jose State (-9)
- Armed Forces Bowl: Navy (1) over Oklahoma (-2)
- Fenway Bowl: UConn (-8) over North Carolina (-12)
- New Mexico Bowl: Louisiana (-6) over TCU (-9)
- Arizona Bowl: Colorado State (-8) over Miami Ohio (-9)
- Alamo Bowl: BYU (1) over Colorado (-3)
- Music City Bowl: Iowa (-2) over Missouri (-6)
- Texas Bowl: Baylor (1) over LSU (-1)
- Duke’s Mayo Bowl: Virginia Tech (-2) over Minnesota (-4)
These underdog picks offer a chance to gain an edge in your pool, especially if you consider the QG system’s data-driven approach.
Playoff Predictions and Top 12 Teams
The introduction of the 12-team playoff adds another layer of excitement. According to the QG system, the top-scoring teams this season are:
Top QG Teams
- No. 1: Oregon (14)
- No. 2: Ohio State (10)
- No. 3: Georgia (9)
- No. 4: Boise State (8)
- No. 5: South Carolina (7)
- No. 6 (Tie): Texas (6)
- No. 6 (Tie): Alabama (6)
- No. 8 (Tie): SMU (5)
- No. 8 (Tie): Notre Dame (5)
- No. 8 (Tie): Louisville (5)
- No. 11 (Tie): Indiana (4)
- No. 11 (Tie): Penn State (4)
- No. 11 (Tie): Clemson (4)
Interestingly, the QG system’s top 12 differs from the committee’s selections, notably including South Carolina, Alabama, and Louisville while excluding Tennessee, Arizona State, and Clemson.
Complete Bowl Game Picks
Full Bowl Game Picks
- Salute to Veterans Bowl: South Alabama (-11) over Western Michigan (-13)
- Frisco Bowl: Memphis (-6) over West Virginia (-14)
- Boca Raton Bowl: James Madison (-5) over Western Kentucky (-10)
- LA Bowl: UNLV (2) over Cal (-5)
- New Orleans Bowl: Georgia Southern (-9) over Sam Houston (-12)
- Cure Bowl: Ohio (-2) over Jacksonville State (-6)
- Gasparilla Bowl: Florida (0) over Tulane (-2)
- Playoff: Notre Dame (5) over Indiana (4)
- Playoff: SMU (5) over Penn State (4)
- Playoff: Texas (5) over Clemson (4)
- Playoff: Ohio State (10) over Tennessee (2)
- Myrtle Beach Bowl: UTSA (-5) over Coastal Carolina (-13)
- Potato Bowl: Northern Illinois (-8) over Fresno State (-11)
- Hawaii Bowl: South Florida (-6) over San Jose State (-9)
- GameAbove Sports Bowl: Pitt (-7) over Toledo (-10)
- Guaranteed Rate Bowl: Kansas State (3) over Rutgers (-10)
- 68 Ventures Bowl: Bowling Green (-5) over Arkansas State (-16)
- Birmingham Bowl: Georgia Tech (-2) over Vanderbilt (-3)
- Armed Forces Bowl: Navy (1) over Oklahoma (-2)
- Liberty Bowl: Arkansas (-3) over Texas Tech (-4)
- Holiday Bowl: Syracuse (-7) over Washington State (-8)
- Las Vegas Bowl: Texas A&M (-2) over USC (-8)
- Fenway Bowl: UConn (-8) over North Carolina (-12)
- Pinstripe Bowl: Nebraska (-3) over Boston College (-5)
- New Mexico Bowl: Louisiana (-6) over TCU (-9)
- Pop-Tarts Bowl: Miami (2) over Iowa State (-7)
- Arizona Bowl: Colorado State (-8) over Miami (Ohio) (-9)
- Military Bowl: TIE-pick East Carolina (-9) over N.C. State (-9)
- Alamo Bowl: BYU (1) over Colorado (-3)
- Independence Bowl: Army (3) over Marshall (-6)
- Music City Bowl: Iowa (-2) over Missouri (-6)
- ReliaQuest Bowl: Alabama (6) over Michigan (-1)
- Sun Bowl: Louisville (5) over Washington (-9)
- Citrus Bowl: South Carolina (7) over Illinois (-5)
- Texas Bowl: Baylor (1) over LSU (-1)
- Gator Bowl: Mississippi (3) over Duke (-7)
- First Responder Bowl: Texas State (-3) over North Texas (-9)
- Duke’s Mayo Bowl: Virginia Tech (-2) over Minnesota (-4)
- Bahamas Bowl: Liberty (-8) over Buffalo (-9)
For detailed insights and to access the original article, visit Desert Sun’s full breakdown. With these QG picks, you’re well-equipped to make informed decisions and potentially outperform your competition in this year’s bowl season.
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